Voter Enthusiasm

Don't wet your pants over "enthusiasm" polls. They are a real thing and probably accurate, but don't necessarily translate to actual votes. An unenthusiatic vote counts just as much.

Let's say we have 10 voters. Five are for Trump, five for Biden, or 50% each. They each have four enthusiastic voters and one unenthusiastic, i.e., each have 80% enthusiastic voters. Let's say one of those unenthusiastic Trump voters switches to Biden, and becomes an unenthusiastic Biden voter. Now Biden leads 60% to 40%, but his enthusiastism ratio goes down from 80% (4÷5) to 67% (4÷6). Trump's has increased to 100% enthusiastic. Lots of liberals would see that and declare that we are doomed. But clearly one would rather be in Biden's position than Trump's.

Sometimes the enthusiasm numbers might actually measure an increase in support. But when undecideds decide on a candidate, those voters will tend to be less "'enthusiastic". Same for a voter who switches from one candidate to the other.

So don't despair. The enthusaism numbers may not be telling you what you think.