If Not Now, When?

Two interesting things came across Twitter today. One is an article by Ibram X Kendi in The Atlantic, and the other from Ross Douthat.

Kendi's premise is that moderates are worried that a progressive candidate can't beat Trump. This opinion gets a lot of play in the media.  But there are also a number of progressives who believe that a moderate can't beat Trump (after all it didn't work last time). This notion gets almost no play in the MSM. Kendi says that both of these opinions are legitimate, but he believes that, because of the uncertainty that is inherent in this sort of thing, neither is a slam dunk. I think that he is probably correct. There is nothing unreasonable about assuming that either scenario is equally likely. (Of course, it could ceratinly be true that either can beat Trump; or neither can beat Trump.)

Also on Twitter today, Ross Douthat weighed in on Jonathan Chait's latest attempt in New York Magazine to cast a Sanders candidacy as an unmitigated disaster. Douthat's thread compares a Sanders candidacy to Reagan in 1980. Recall that Reagan was thought by many to be too conservative to win, but conservatives went ahead anyway in the hopes that a victory--even though iffy--would be transformative, so worth the risk. Progressives today are in pretty much the same boat. If not now, when? And a Sanders presidency would be undeniably transformative. Douthat quotes Ramesh Ponuru from a Bloomberg opinion piece:

Here’s what this way of thinking misses: If Sanders wins, it will mark a huge change in American politics. Self-described socialists have been elected in other developed countries; never in this one. Here, “socialism” has been an accusation, not a boast. Politicians on the left wing of the Democratic Party have considered the label, and the associations that come with it, deadly to their electoral chances. Republicans hope it still is. If Sanders beats them, the taboo will be broken.

It’s not just a matter of the label. The limits of what’s politically possible will shift left as the political world adjusts to the new reality. Politicians, strategists, journalists, activists and voters who thought that certain ideas were too far left to make it in America would revise their sense of the country, and of what counts as extreme or as realistic within it. The ground on which future races for president, governor and Congress are contested would move left. That doesn’t mean the U.S. would be Venezuela, or even Denmark, by the start of 2022. But it is reasonable to expect that government policy 10 or 20 years from now would be considerably more socialistic than it would be if Trump were re-elected — or if Biden were elected.

I believe that these two notions together--Kendi and Douthat/Pomuru--put into words what I have been trying to piece together. Since Reagan, the Republicans have pushed farther and farther to the right. For the most part, the response from the Dems has been to always tack back to the center. The result is that politics has moved steadily to the right, even though a case can be made that the public has not. The polls so far certainly don't suggest that Sanders would be blown out. He does very similarly to Biden.

In short, since I buy the argument put forth by Kendi (i.e., 50-50), I will continue to support Sanders, because it is worth the risk. It's time to change the conversation, and if not now, when?